By Janet Ekstract
ISTANBUL- The bully on the border as you might have already guessed is Russia. One thing that we know very well about bullies is that they don’t ever have a logical reason for whatever they are doing. A bully always justifies their actions with an explanation that is nothing short of a lie. This is precisely what Russia is doing in its bid to threaten Ukraine with invasion.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov now wants written “guarantees” that Russia’s security will be protected when it is Russia who is the blatant aggressor with now 106,000 troops amassed on Ukraine’s border when Ukraine has made not one single provocation. Many fear a return to 2014, the year that Russia invaded Ukraine with much loss of life – forcing many Ukrainians to flee the country if they could.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken as well as Lavrov have acknowledged that Friday’s meeting between them in Geneva, may not yield significant results but as Blinken said – he wants to see if Russia will keep the door open for dialogue. It’s a strange conundrum this powerplay that Russia insists on fueling with nary a move from Ukraine’s President Vladimir Zelenski.
Both Blinken and Lavrov stated that the Geneva talks were “honest” and “substantive.” Despite such conclusions by both men, Blinken warned Lavrov of the consequences were Russia to make any sudden moves. As Blinken said the response will be “united, swift and severe” should Russia test U.S. patience.
Meanwhile, Putin is demanding that Ukraine be blocked from joining NATO and wants weapons to stop being sent to eastern Europe. At a press conference after Friday’s meeting, Lavrov accused NATO of working against Russia. As is the routine for Russia, accusations are the norm and not the exception. Lavrov reiterated that Russia has “never threatened the Ukrainian people.” He added that the U.S. will present Russia with a written response to its security demands next week. Lavrov said another meeting will take place after Russia has examined the document the U.S: will present. Blinken told the press that the U.S. would be willing to consider Russian concerns in a spirit of reciprocity. But the elephant in the room remains the fact that Russia has a history of not honoring pacts and agreements.
This makes analysts and observers in the region a whole lot more skeptical about Russia’s motives for amassing hundreds of thousands of troops on Ukraine’s border. Another concern is Russia’s complaint about military exercises in the region which the U.S. also must take into account. In 2019, the U.S. scrapped the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty – a Cold War era agreement after accusing Russia of violating that pact.
Blinken’s bottom line was to insist that Russia stop its troop buildup which gives it the ability to attack Ukraine from the south, east and north. He added that Russia also uses cyber attacks and other means to further its interests in the region. On Thursday, the Biden administration revealed that Russian intelligence officers were recruiting current and former Ukrainian government officials to plot a takeover in the case of a Russian invasion into Ukraine. So far, two Ukrainians involved in the plot were arrested.
The stakes are high and neither the EU or the U.S. want a repeat of Russia’s 2014 invasion into Ukraine. where 14,000 people lost their lives and caused two million people to flee their homes. Clearly, Russia flexing its military and political muscle is not just a threat to Ukraine but a clear message to the U.S. and international community that Russia aims to have the last laugh no matter at whose expense.
