By Janet Ekstract
ISTANBUL- The second election runoff in Turkiye is underway on Sunday with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seen by analysts and observers as the frontrunner this second time around. In the first round of voting, Erdogan secured a majority in the 600-seat Turkish Parliament and this year’s election has seen 121 women elected to parliament which is a first for the country, experts said. Meanwhile, opposition candidate CHP Chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu has managed to rally six major parties behind him including in the second round, an extreme right party who maintain a hardline stance on the immigration issue in Turkiye. Some analysts report that if more votes come in for that party that Kilicdaroglu could have a shot at surpassing Erdogan in the vote count.
Erdogan, who has been in power for two decades, has managed to weather his share of political storms and is surprising the opposition as well because since January 2022, Turkiye was thrust into the worst inflation the country has seen in decades. Largely due to Erdogan’s brand of economic philosophy, financial experts said, since maintaining low interest rates has driven inflation upward. Though the Turkish leader has acknowledged the issue, Erdogan claims the circumstances will be short-lived since the nation’s export economy is booming. An analyst who spoke to TRT World several weeks ago, said that Turkiye has gained in terms of investments and a robust economy, by refusing to budge on raising interest rates.
This election is seen as particularly crucial for the country since a dire cost of living crisis due to extreme inflation and an influx of spree-home buyers from the Middle East have made it next to impossible for the average person to afford to rent or buy an apartment. Flats that used to rent at normal prices are now renting for quadruple their original rental fees. Because of this situation, landlords are demanding three to six-month advance rental fees as well as a co-signer for a rental contract. The February 6 twin quakes that killed over an estimated 80,000 is another factor that observers and analysts saw as a thorn in Erdogan’s side. One factor is the mass collapses of buildings in southeast Turkish cities like Hatay, Kharamanmaras and Gaziantep with at least 50% of Turks viewing the AK Party as culpable since under Erdogan’s government, a law was signed decades ago that allowed construction companies to by-pass building codes.
Despite those factors appearing to be major setbacks, Erdogan managed to hold onto his lead in the first election with a little over 49% of the vote to Kilicdaroglu’s 44.5%. Several factors will affect the election outcome, not the least of which is the fact that most Turks prefer to stick with the status quo and the fact that Erdogan’s track record with his constituents appears to remain intact. On the other hand, those who are hopeful Kilicdaroglu will win, can cite the fact that since he has a six-party alliance and one far right leader behind him – that he could surpass Erdogan.
DW News interviewed one retired man, a resident of Istanbul, who said it doesn’t matter to him if prices are higher, he can make do with less but that Erdogan has improved the health system’s infrastructure and that he has put Turkiye on the map. A trans-woman who unsuccessfully ran for office, cited Erdogan’s negative rhetoric against LGBTQ people in Turkiye but admitted that she won’t lose any sleep if he’s reelected. It’s clear that whoever is elected will need to make good on promises made – especially in rebuilding quake-hit zones. Either way, the new president will serve a five-year term and with Turkiye having cemented its influence in the region and throughout the world, whoever takes the helm, will have a very busy agenda.
